Scientists warn that the catastrophic flooding that swept through Western Europe last week was a glimpse into the future of the region, as climate change has encouraged a stronger, slower-moving storm system that can accommodate large amounts of precipitation.

According to a New research Published in the journal Geophysical Research Letters, In the next century, the frequency of similar slow-moving low-pressure storms in Europe may increase 14 times. So far, this weather pattern is relatively uncommon in the region, but researchers have used detailed climate model simulations to find that storms in the next few decades will have higher peak intensity, longer duration, and more frequent occur.The formation of slow-moving storms at warm atmospheric temperatures also means more water accumulation—for every 1.8 degrees Fahrenheit warming, the atmosphere can maintain 7% increase in moisture — Increase the risk of flash floods.

“This study shows that extreme storm changes will be significant and will lead to an increase in the frequency of devastating floods across Europe,” said Hayley Fowler, a co-author of the study and a hydroclimatologist at Newcastle University in the United Kingdom. Fowler) said, Said in the press release.

Fowler said this is a wake-up call that can improve emergency warning and management, and make infrastructure more resistant to the effects of climate change.

Two months of rain Late last week, parts of Germany fell in just 24 hours, causing damage to bridges and roads, flooding rivers, collapsing hillsides, and washing away houses and cars.More than 1,000 rescue operations have been carried out, nearly 200 people were killed, 700 people were injured, and many people were missing As of Monday morningParts of the Netherlands, Luxembourg, and the United Kingdom have also been affected by flash floods.

Fowler and her colleagues’ new research echoes a separate Learn Research published in the Journal of Climatology in January found that in the next century, annual precipitation and extreme precipitation will increase in most parts of Europe.

“Governments around the world have been too slow in reducing greenhouse gas emissions, and global warming is still continuing,” Fowler said.

As the global climate impact worsens—from floods in Europe to record-breaking wildfires in the western United States to severe droughts in Madagascar—some countries are taking action before the UN Climate Change Conference in November this year. The two largest economies in the world, the European Union and China, Recently announced cleaning plan To reduce greenhouse gas emissions. The pledge includes the world’s first tax on imports from high-emission countries by the European Union. However, environmentalists say it is still not enough to avoid the worst effects of climate change.

United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change Released A report in March indicated that if the world is to achieve the Paris Agreement’s goal of limiting global temperature rise to 1.5 degrees Celsius by the end of this century, countries must redouble their efforts and submit more ambitious climate action plans in 2022.

As of March, the global collective commitment to reduce greenhouse gas emissions has put us on the path to reduce emissions by less than 1% by 2030 compared to 2010 levels. However, according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, to limit the temperature rise to less than 1.5 degrees Celsius, the emission reduction range should be around 45%.


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