At 12:34 pm on Monday, an email from an odds maker popped up in my inbox about the fast-changing NL East and the collapse of the Mets (with the Philadelphians and the Warriors). The rise of the team simultaneously) How to flip and reverse a department that was once boring.

In the note list of, the tenth place is: “On August 2, Bryce Harper left the board and won the NL MVP.”

My first thought was, “Well, what is he now?” I thought maybe he has entered the top 10 or even the top 5. No, he was ranked 2nd on 4/1, second only to Fernando Tatis Jr., who checked in on 10/11. Harper’s is followed by Max Muncy (19/4), Trea Turner (8/1) and Freddie Freeman (17/2) are close behind.

After an hour or so, a tweet from @MLBonFOX cycle through my Twitter timeline, Harper’s face is next to Tatis, flanked by Monsi, Turner, and Freeman. Oh, and this one, from the official Twitter account of MLB…

more: Is Freddie Freeman a member of the Hall of Fame? He may be, but there is still work to be done.

Yes, Harper’s hype train seems to be moving away from the station.

Here’s the thing: it’s not that Harper is close behind, but he is still second. Tatis (again) was in Illinois with a shoulder injury. He should be back soon (a few days, not a few weeks), but he has missed 27 of the Padres’ 114 games this season. Can Harper really sneak into this game and win his second NL MVP award? This time, if he succeeds, he will not be as dominant as his 2015 victory, when he led the NL in the Nationals’ home runs (42) and bWAR (9.7), and swept all 30 votes first. name.

Harper was not actually on the board a week ago, but now he is second on the list of betting favorites? So, um, what has he done recently? In eight games in August, he hit 0.367 with an OPS of 1.390 and four home runs in eight games. Running allowed him to cross the 3/4/5 platform-0.300 average, 0.400 base percentage, and 0.500 critical percentage-at 0.302/.413/.570. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is the only other player to exceed these benchmarks this season, but apparently he is in the Associated Press. This is not uncommon (26 players have completed matches in 3/4/5 clubs since 2015), but it is still impressive.

More importantly, for his MVP odds, the Phillies did not lose the game in August. Combining the free fall mode of the Mets, the Harper Philadelphians have led from 4 1/2 games in the first game in NL East at the end of July to the two games that entered Tuesday’s game.

But does a winning streak like this really have such a big impact on the MVP competition-individual awards? At this point, I would say: Remember, these are betting odds. For example, the probability of inducing people to bet on things. Of course, the odds setters of and @FOXBet did not actually vote for the award.

Now, let’s talk about Tatis, he is still the most popular person, but still on IL. What is the tipping point and what is the minimum number of games required to win the MVP award? Of course, there is no official minimum requirement. Clayton Kershaw won the NL Award as a starting pitcher in 2015 when he dominated 27 games. But in fact, what is the threshold for a player in a position like Tatis?

Assuming he played 40 of the club’s last 48 games this season, it feels possible. This allowed him to play 127 games. Since Major League Baseball expanded to 162 games in 1961, only three players have won the MVP award and the number of games has not exceeded 127 (in non-strike, non-pandemic years): Mickey Mantle in 1962, Willie Stargell in 1979 and George Brett in 1980.

Mantel played 123 games and won in 1962, finishing with an average of 30 home runs and 89 RBIs of 0.321. He was not as healthy or productive as in 1961 (54 home runs, 128 RBIs), but Roger Maris broke Babe Ruth’s record that year. Not that WAR was the same thing at the time, but his score was 6.0, and no one else exceeded 6.2 in 1962. Good choice.

Stargell shared the 1979 award with Keith Hernandez; he had 10 votes for the first place, while Hernandez had 4 votes for the first place, but both ended with 216 points. What was the distribution of votes that year? Eight different players won the first place. Stargell hit 32 home runs in his 126 games, ending with 82 RBIs and an average batting rate of 0.287. The Buccaneers won NL East with 98 Ws and went on to win the World Series. On the other hand, Hernandez played 161 games with a batting rate of 0.344. Although there were only 11 home runs, there were 105 RBIs.

Brett’s performance in 1980 was incredible, with a batting rate of 0.390, more RBI (118) than games (117), 24 home runs and 15 stolen bases. He received 17 of 28 votes and easily defeated Reggie Jackson and his 41 home runs in 143 games.

Tatis’s case is more like Brett’s case than Mantle’s case or Stargell’s case. When he was on the court, he had an incredible season. Despite missing all these games, he still leads the National League with 31 home runs — Kyle Schwab is second with 25 home runs, but he was traded to the Red Sox — he still has 23. A home run led the National League.

um, yes. Very special.

For the sake of argument, let’s compare the seasons of the top five contenders Tatis, Harper and Muncy based on these specific odds setters.

Tatis 87 grams .292/.373/.651 31 Human Resources 70 RBI 23 SB 180 operations + 5.1 War
Harper 91 g .302/.413/.570 20 Human Resources 45 RBI 12 SB 168 Operation and Maintenance+ 3.4 War
Muncie 95 grams .275/.408/.543 22 Human Resources 64 RBI 2 SB 159 Operation and Maintenance+ 5.2 War
turner 99 grams .321/.370/.518 18 Human Resources 49 RBI 22 SB 145 Operators+ 4.1 War
Freeman 111 grams .294/.394/.504 24 Human Resources 63 RBI 6 SB 131 Operation and Maintenance+ 3.0 bWAR

Although there are the fewest games on the list-everyone except Freeman has missed at least 10 games-Tatis still leads in statistics (HR/RBI/SB) and is behind Muncy in bWAR , This is another cumulative state. In FanGraphs’ WAR calculation, he ranks among the best in NL with 4.5, slightly higher than Muncy and Turner, both of which are 4.3. It should be noted that such a small gap in WAR is essentially no gap at all.

Regarding Harper’s statistics, the biggest bright spot is the low total number of RBIs. This year he has played 76 three holes and 14 hits (in another game, he entered the game as a flanker in the 8th position). On the one hand, 18 of his 20 home runs were open bases, but he must have done a bad job at critical moments, right? Incorrect.

This year, Harper’s batting rate is 0.317, and he has a 0.455 on base rate in the scoring position. He just doesn’t have too many opportunities. Despite participating in 91 games, Harper only made the top set with RISP in 50 games this year, making a total of 77 appearances. This is tied for 164th among the big men, although the total number of appearances among the big men is ranked 105th. When he had a chance, he had 19 hits, 14 walks and 22 RBIs.

Harper ranked third in the lineup with 76 starts, but no other Philadelphia player ranked first in 43 games. Here are the PAs of other Phillies using RISP: Rhys Hoskins (119), Alec Bohm (106), Andrew McCutchen (105), JT Realmuto (96).

I did not officially vote for the NL MVP this year (I have NL Cy Young voting), so I cannot claim to know exactly what each of the 30 voters are thinking. But I have the confidence to say this: unless Tatis’ shoulder is injured again and he has only played a few games in the regular season, unless Harper hits 0.367 for the rest of the year, or Mansi’s strength improves by several notches. , Or after Turner led his new team to defeat the Giants in NL West with a monster result, the award will be awarded to Tatis.

However, I do know: if these five people stay healthy, it will be fun to watch and discuss the game.

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