Detroit-the future may belong Electric car, But for American automakers, trucks will rule the next few years.

North American automakers plan to produce more large pickup trucks and Sport utility vehicle Compare electric car According to internal production forecasts seen by Reuters, by the late 2020s, it will pursue a sales trend that runs counter to the Biden administration’s goal of increasing the market share of electric vehicles to half by 2030.

The popularity of Detroit’s big trucks has reduced the industry, legislators and regulators. Emissions Carbon dioxide and other exhaust pollutants from internal combustion engines.

U.S. consumers’ continued demand for full-size trucks and SUVs is one of the most profitable vehicles in the industry, which will largely contribute to new North American electric vehicles and Battery Plant by General Motors, Ford And Stellantis.The factory that makes Detroit trucks employs thousands of union workers-an important supporter of the union President Joe Biden.

At the same time, according to Reuters’ analysis of data generated by the GREET modeling tool of Argonne National Laboratory, the average CO2 produced during the life cycle of large combustion-driven pickup trucks and SUVs in Detroit is the same as that of typical electric vehicles. Times-the same model is used in the United States Environmental Protection Agency.

Three major automakers Joint Statement August 5 was described as the “common desire” of Biden’s goal to increase the production of electric vehicles to 40-50% by 2030. This goal will mean increasing North America’s annual electricity and electricity production. Plug-in hybrid vehicle Electric vehicles reach 7 million or more.

However, the entire industry Currently planned to build According to AutoForecast Solutions (AFS), there will be only 2.6 million pure electric vehicles (BEV) and another 585,000 plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEV) by 2028, and the company has compiled production estimates that are widely used throughout the industry.

If automakers stick to these plans, by 2028, electric vehicles will only account for 15% of North America’s total production. Hybrid Accounted for another 3.4%.

In this case, automakers must more than double the production of electric vehicles and plug-in hybrid vehicles within two years from 2028 to 2030 to achieve Biden’s low-end target of 40%.

The outlook for AutoForecast is consistent with the US government’s own forecasts.

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency stated on August 5 that it expects hybrid car Account for 8% of U.S. cars and light vehicles Truck sales By 2026, it will be 10-11% lower than AutoForecast’s forecast.

Researcher IHS Markit estimated on August 9 that automakers need at least 18% of their total sales to come from electric vehicles in 2026-this figure is consistent with AutoForecast estimates-in order to have a realistic chance of achieving the proposed 2030 target .

Sam Fiorani, head of global automotive forecasting at AFS, said: “To achieve the 40-50% goal in 2030, electric vehicles will require more demand.” However, “many buyers will find excuses not to switch from internal combustion engine vehicles to electric vehicles. “

Possible shortage of electric vehicles

Insufficient demand for electric vehicles and strong sales of pickup trucks and SUVs may hinder broader efforts to fight the epidemic climate change.

“We will have to find a way to make these predictions fall apart,” said Mary Nichols, former chairman of the California Air Resources Board and a long-time advocate of clean air.

“It’s not just about the company, (they) are doing their best to design and manufacture the electric cars that people want, and to ensure that the battery has a longer range and can be recharged. This part is progressing very fast (but) it must go even further. Fast,” said Nichols, a board member of Veloz, a California-based industry government alliance that promotes greater use of electric vehicles.

Automakers have been cautiously determining their electric vehicle sales targets as dependent on consumer demand and government subsidies.

“We have been saying for months that Ford expects that by 2030, electric vehicles will account for at least 40% of our global sales. This is not a wish-this is what we expect,” a Ford spokesperson told Reuters. “We believe that by then we will be in a good position to allow pure electric vehicles to account for 40% to 50% of our US sales.”

General Motors It reiterated the “wish” of eliminating light-duty vehicle exhaust emissions by 2035, and the desire to increase sales of electric vehicles to 40-50% by 2030.

Stellantis said it would not comment on speculation about future products.

The current reality of all U.S. automakers-except for electric vehicle leaders Tesla — Trucks and SUVs are in great demand, and consumers are willing to pay high prices for them. Electric vehicles from mature automakers are still niche models.

According to the latest forecast by AFS, the industry is expected to produce 3.3 million full-size pickup trucks and SUVs in North America this year.Almost all of these will be powered by gasoline or diesel engine engine. By 2028, this number is expected to climb to 3.75 million-of which only a small part will be equipped with electric motors and battery packs.

Due to this year’s production is blocked Global semiconductor shortage, General Motors, Ford, and Stellattis cannot maintain a sufficient supply of these vehicles in inventory Dealer, Many of them are priced higher than the manufacturer’s suggested list price for the most popular model.

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