Many people in rich countries tend to organize their lives as on a spreadsheet. They plan to start their careers at the age of 17 and receive pensions at the age of 25. A couple with children projected their genes to 90 years ago.

Our generation of Westerners grew up in the most peaceful era in history and has begun to imagine that our personal future is predictable. But the climate crisis has upended all predictability. Climate change equals human change, and it needs to reimagine our lives. So, how should we deal with the increasing risk of disasters?

This is”Deep adaptation“Mobile. Its master and British scholar, Jim Bender, has been criticized for exaggerating the risk of “recent social collapse”. But the fact is that most of us may have underestimated it.

Bender’s premise is that governments, companies, and individuals talk about climate action as empty talk.The leaders happily vowed to fight Achieve zero carbon by 2050, When will they die. But in fact, everyone’s motivation is to keep the party going by emitting more carbon dioxide.

At some unknown future time, every unit pumped into the atmosphere is a trivial contribution to the problems of others. This is true even for our children living in climate disasters.

Inevitably, carbon emissions have been rising until the pandemic.During the unprecedented economic shutdown, they dropped About 6.4% -But it’s not enough Need to drop by 7.6% Every year through 2030, let us embark on the track of limiting the temperature rise to 1.5C.

At the same time, climate change is developing faster than the cautious predictions of the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Draft of the next IPCC reportWhat has just been leaked to AFP is the team’s most terrifying document to date, with increased forecasts of droughts, floods and heat waves in 2050.

It also warns that it may accelerate this future “tipping point”, such as The drying up of the Amazon rainforest Or the collapse of Greenland and Antarctica’s ice sheets. The surface layer of Greenland is melting seven times faster than in the 1990s.Today’s climate disasters-such as record-breaking Heat wave in the western United States ——It is a worse sign.

Anyone who predicts the apocalypse will face two standard objections. The first is that prediction will reduce people’s motivation to take action. This may be true, but in any case people will not take major actions, and opposition will not invalidate the prediction.

The second objection is that all past predictions of the Global Apocalypse were wrong. However, the end of the world in the past is a low probability bet, because we only gained the ability to destroy ourselves when the atomic bomb arrived in the 1940s. Progress has doubled our average life expectancy, while enabling us to end the global story.

Most of us respond to this not by denying it but by not considering it. People in the booming “sustainable” industry are more willing to advertise minor repairs (the new aircraft’s fuel consumption will be reduced by 10%!) rather than considering the possibility of everything going smoothly.

How do you live? The younger you are, the more urgent this problem is. At the most basic level, if you want to buy a house, you usually make a 50-year bet: the duration of the average mortgage, plus the mortgage from the person who bought the house from you. I will not buy things in Miami today.

The rule of thumb is that the safest areas in the future will be those with relatively mild or cold climates. In turn, this means that the best places to escape climate disasters are precisely the places with the largest carbon emissions in the past: Northern Europe and the northern United States.

More importantly, take the view of almost everyone before the 1950s: Don’t make any assumptions about your future. Don’t organize your life around distant rewards. By 2050, which entity will be able to pay your pension?

Climate capital

Where climate change meets business, markets, and politics. Explore the UK’s “Financial Times” report here.

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Then comes the ethical question: do you want to be part of the destruction of the climate system? It is easy to shift all responsibility to the fossil fuel industry, but almost everyone who works in developed countries is accomplices-shop assistants, hotel employees, and journalists whose newspapers are funded by readers in carbon-intensive industries.

Anyone who owns gas heating, cars, and occasional air tickets depends on climate damage for a living. Almost everything we call “progress” or “growth” will make things worse. Our children may not appreciate our profession.

The stereotype of apocalyptic survivalists is like a lunatic wearing an AK-47 and a tin foil hat on the top of a mountain. (The high-end version is a luxury house in New Zealand.) But there are more social ways to opt out. In 1990, after the fall of communism, when I moved into the crumbling Prenzlauer Berg neighbourhood in East Berlin, I witnessed it with my own eyes.

Many of my new neighbors are young East Germans who refuse to accept the communist system they consider evil.They have no formal jobs, or low-ranking jobs such as librarians or nurses, or like Young Angela Merkel, In physics and other non-communist majors. Some people live off-grid and have no phones, and maybe there are stolen calls. Their small community is full of whistleblowers, but people help each other and have no expectations for the future. Strangely, they may be our future.

Follow Simon on Twitter @KuperSimon And email him [email protected]

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