When Justin Trudeau stepped onto the stage in October 2019 to claim victory in the last Canadian parliamentary election, he was a punished man.
The prime minister is the darling on the international stage and will lead a minority government after he loses power most In a campaign ruined by scandals, including the appearance of photos of him when he was young Black-faced.
But last week, when he strode out of the Rideau Hall in Ottawa, the seat of government, he asked the governor of the country to dissolve the parliament for election On September 20, Trudeau, with his shaved head, had many reasons to be confident.
His government hosted a Vaccine launch More than 63% of Canadians are fully vaccinated. This is one of the countries with the highest coverage rate in the world. Despite early supply problems, nearly 52 million doses of the vaccine are still vaccinated.
Canadians overwhelmingly support the government’s pandemic stimulus spending, which as of March exceeded CAD 122 billion (US$95 billion). Statistics Canada data shows that Canadians saved 212 billion Canadian dollars last year, compared with 18 billion Canadian dollars in 2019, thanks to the government’s direct cash transfer during the peak of the pandemic.
Now Trudeau hopes to get a majority of seats. Most opinion polls show that his Liberal Party may expand its minority seats, but it is also far from the 170 seats required to obtain a majority. It currently has 155 seats.
“He is leaving now because he thinks it can win the majority of seats,” said Tasha Kheiriddin of Navigator, a Toronto research and consulting firm. “From his point of view, this is the best time, even though we are seeing the fourth wave [of the virus] Construction, because if he waits, he won’t do better. “
A poll conducted by the Canadian Broadcasting Corporation showed that the Liberal Party has a support rate of 35%, while the Conservative Party has a support rate of 29.3%, and Trudeau’s party has a 41% chance of winning the majority. The polling website 338 Canada currently predicts that the Liberal Party will win 162 seats, most of which are within the margin of error.
But the election campaign is the shortest time required by Canadian law and will take place during the country’s response to the fourth wave of the pandemic, and few Canadians are eager for the election season as they recover from the pandemic and return to school.
Trudeau sees this election as an opportunity to “end the fight against Covid-19”, a referendum on his government’s response to the pandemic, and an opportunity for Canadians to vote on the authorization for radical change during the expected economic recovery.
He outlined priorities, including actions on climate change, child care, public health, affordable housing, and reconciliation with indigenous communities.
“The decisions your government makes now will determine the future of your children and grandchildren as they grow up,” he said during the campaign. “We existed for you, now you choose.”
But for this country, this is a complicated period. The inflation of rising food prices and the explosion of housing prices have focused attention on public debt and finances. Recently, mass graves of indigenous children were discovered in boarding schools, trying to forcibly assimilate them into white culture, which increased the urgency of truth and reconciliation initiatives.
However, the first few days of the campaign have been replaced by other factors.this Disintegration of Afghanistan Force the government to defend its foreign policy record.It highlights other major challenges, such as relations with China Imprisoning two Canadians Arrested in retaliation for Ottawa Meng Wanzhou, Huawei’s Chief Financial Officer.
The majority of the minority governments in Canada have a lifespan of about two years before facing a vote of confidence that threatens their power. Trudeau hopes to benefit from the fact that few voters know of his main opponent, Conservative Party leader Irene O’Toole, who won the leadership of the party a year ago.
A poll by Navigator shows that although no federal leader is particularly favored by voters, O’Toole is lagging behind. Only 6% of Canadians believe he will lead.
O’Toole launched his campaign this week, and his policy platform avoids it by providing billions of dollars in aid for new epidemics, directly supporting parents in taking care of their children, increasing public health spending, and providing subsidies to companies that want to hire workers. Fiscal conservatism.
“I think they are paying attention to the way the world is changing, and they are trying to adapt to it,” said Kheiriddin of O’Toole’s non-conservative platform. “I think there is a greater need for government support because people have become accustomed to it in the past year and a half.”
“I think he is working hard… saying,’If you vote for us, we won’t turn off all the taps’,” she added.
The main obstacle to Trudeau’s overwhelming majority of seats comes from left-wing challengers. The leader of the New Democratic Party (NDP), Jagmeet Singh, has become a popular national figure. It is trying to attract young and progressive voters in Ontario and British Columbia who want to contribute to social justice and Take bolder action in terms of larger medical subsidies.
In the key battlefield province of Quebec, the Liberal Party hopes to seize a seat from the Quebec group of Quebec nationalists. Trudeau’s party made recommendations to voters in the region on the eve of the election announcement, launching a multi-billion dollar childcare program for the province. In June, it supported a motion with other political parties to recognize Quebec as a country with French as its official language.
“One of the Liberal Party’s roads to victory is in Quebec,” said Nikita Nanos, chief data scientist and founder of polling company Nanos Research. Nanos said that last month’s model showed that Quebec had about 10 to 12 electoral districts controlled by the Quebec Group. These electoral districts were too close—most of them were races that the Liberal Party could win.
The decision to hold early elections now is a stopgap measure: Trudeau hopes to reap the results of successfully controlling the pandemic before the economic bill expires.
Philippe J Fournier, the founder of 338 Canada, wrote in a column in Macleans Magazine: “The Liberal Party is likely to get a majority, and there may be no chance to do so in the foreseeable future.”
“If it weren’t for this fall, when would the Liberal Party hope to have a better window to obtain authorization for the third time in a row? Next spring, after the second consecutive budget deficit of hundreds of billions of dollars? It is unlikely.”