Four representatives and advisers of the organization said on Wednesday that the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia have reached an outline of an agreement that will allow OPEC and its allies to reach an agreement to increase oil production, but warned that discussions are still going on , The agreement is still in progress. To be determined.

People familiar with the matter said that Saudi Arabia agreed in principle to revise the UAE’s “baseline” production level. Prior to this, the Gulf countries effectivelyOPEC+ agreement was locked last week Because it did not address its concerns about its own output goals.

They said that the transaction seems to be nearing completion, but the final details on the exact level of the benchmark-which is the basis for calculating the member states’ production targets-are still under discussion.

Any agreement Between Saudi Arabia and the UAE It still needs to be signed by other OPEC+ alliance members including Russia at the unscheduled meeting.

OPEC’s goal is to increase production by 400,000 barrels per day from now to the end of the year; if the agreement between the UAE and Saudi Arabia yields results and other members raise the UAE’s baseline target again, the timetable may be restored.

UAE has improve In recent years, its production capacity has increased from about 3.5 mb/d in 2018 to 4 million barrels/day today, which means that it believes it is entitled to a higher baseline and production target.By 2030 it should be closer To 5m barrels/day.

Due to the dispute between the UAE and Saudi Arabia, OPEC’s meeting this month has reached a deadlock, exacerbating the volatility of the crude oil market, as there are concerns that the dispute will prevent the planned increase in supply and undermine cartel cooperation.

The group cut production by nearly 10 million barrels per day during the peak period of the blockade when demand weakened last year. With the recovery in demand, production has been slowly increasing, but many oil traders and analysts believe it is too slow to stop the market Tighten from quickly.

Tuesday, the International Energy Agency It warned that unless OPEC acts quickly to increase supply, rising oil prices may begin to drag the economy back from the pandemic.

Oil price hits highest Last week was the level since 2018, climbing to more than US$77 per barrel. Brent crude oil rose slightly to US$76.66 per barrel on Wednesday.

People familiar with the negotiations said that the formal confirmation of the agreement between the two countries may have to wait until another OPEC meeting. They warned that the relationship between the two former Gulf allies is still tense.

“They may not officially confirm it,” said a Gulf consultant familiar with the negotiations, referring to Saudi Arabia. “I don’t think they want to give such a boost to the UAE.”

Reuters reported on Wednesday that the transaction has been completed and the UAE has achieved a new benchmark target of 3.65mb/d.

Two of the four representatives and consultants told the Financial Times that they expect the final agreed baseline may be lower, perhaps about 3.5mb/d. The Gulf consultant stated that the new baseline will be applied from April 2022.

Saudi Arabia hopes to extend the OPEC+ agreement at least until the end of 2022, believing that in view of the Covid-19 crisis and the emergence of variants such as Delta, the oil market needs greater certainty.

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